When VAR (Video Assistant Referee) was introduced, it promised clarity and fairness. For football fans, it delivered drama. For bettors? It changed everything. From unexpected penalties to delayed celebrations to full-on market swings, VAR has become one of the most influential forces in modern football betting—and not always in ways you can prepare for. In this blog, we'll break down how VAR affects betting markets, what bettors need to watch for, and why this tool has made football betting both sharper and more chaotic.

What Is VAR, Really?

VAR is a video review system used to assist referees with "clear and obvious errors" in four key areas:

  1. Goals
  2. Penalties
  3. Straight red cards
  4. Mistaken identity

Sounds simple—but in reality, it means stoppages, reversals, second-guessing, and more unpredictability in the flow of the game.

1. Markets Move Fast—Then Freeze

The biggest impact of VAR?
In-play betting just got way more volatile.
You'll see:

  • A goal is scored → odds update
  • VAR check begins → markets suspend
  • Goal ruled out → odds snap back

This constant yo-yo makes it harder to:

  • Lock in value during live play
  • React to key moments before the bookies freeze things
  • Use momentum-based live betting the way we used to

2. More Penalties = More Chaos

VAR has led to a massive rise in penalties—especially in leagues like Serie A, La Liga, and the Champions League. That means:

  • More BTTS hits due to soft pens
  • More penalty taker props becoming relevant
  • Clean sheet bets ruined by one handball call
  • "Under" bettors sweating every 50/50 challenge in the box

📍Example:
Serie A saw a record number of penalties in 2020–21, much of it down to VAR's influence on handballs and minimal contact fouls.

3. You're Never Safe Until It's Checked

You used to celebrate goals right away.
Now? You wait for the screen.
That also affects:

  • First Goalscorer bets (goals ruled out for offside)
  • Scorecast/Correct Score bets (VAR can wipe out entire bet paths)
  • Goal timing markets (goals delayed due to review might fall outside timing windows)

What used to be instant is now uncertain.

4. VAR-Proof Markets Are Growing

Some bettors now shift toward markets less impacted by VAR, such as:

  • Total corners
  • Team shots
  • Player fouls
  • Booking points

These stats aren't overturned by replays.
They happen in real time and stand.
Smart bettors are adapting—not just reacting.

5. Psychology of Teams Changes Mid-Match

  • Teams celebrate less → momentum changes
  • Players hesitate in the box → fewer risky tackles
  • Some teams "play for VAR" (diving, arm placement, etc.)

This can impact:

  • Card markets
  • Fouls
  • Game tempo (especially in the second half)

The flow of football has shifted, and with it, the way we predict it.

How to Adapt as a Bettor

Strategy Why It Works
✅ 1. Track penalty trends by league Some leagues call soft pens with VAR. Some don't.
➡️ Know where to expect goals from the spot.
✅ 2. Bet markets less affected by VAR Props like corners, passes, and fouls offer more stability in this new era.
✅ 3. Be cautious with early celebrations (and early cash outs) That 89th-minute BTTS winner? VAR might take it from you.
✅ 4. Factor in VAR-prone teams Some clubs are consistently involved in VAR decisions (both for and against). Use that data.

Final Word

VAR was meant to eliminate mistakes.
But for bettors, it introduced a new layer of unpredictability.
Goals are checked. Pens are given for nothing.
And a perfect bet can die at the monitor.
The key is to evolve:

  • Learn which markets hold up under VAR
  • Track the trends
  • And bet like someone who understands the game just changed