Everyone watches for goals. But if you're betting smart, you know there's value in what happens before and around the goals—corners, cards, and shots.

Bookmakers offer markets like:

  • Over/Under Corners
  • Total Booking Points / Cards
  • Player Shots or Shots on Target
  • Team Shots / Fouls / First Team Card

And here's the good news: these markets are often softer. They move slower. They're less influenced by public money. And that means… opportunity.

This blog shows how to use stats to get the edge in corners, cards, and shots betting.

🟨 1. Predicting Cards: What to Look For

Cards are driven by style, tempo, emotion, and officiating—not just fouls.

Key Stats:

  • Fouls committed per game (by team & player)
  • Cards per game (team averages)
  • Player bookings per 90
  • Referee cards per match
  • Type of match (derby, high-stakes, etc.)

Example:

  • In a fiery derby (like Lazio vs Roma), you often see 6–8+ cards.
  • Refs like Antonio Mateu Lahoz (La Liga) are known for handing out yellows fast.
  • Players like Casemiro are always worth watching in "Player to Be Booked" props.

Markets to target:

  • Over 3.5/4.5 cards
  • Booking points
  • First team card
  • Player to be carded

🎯 2. Predicting Corners: Go Deeper Than Averages

Most bettors only look at average corners per match. But that's just the surface. Corners are about pressure, style, and game state.

Key Stats:

  • Team corners for/against
  • Shots + possession in final third
  • Crosses per match
  • Game context (will they be attacking?)
  • Set-piece reliance
  • Opponent's defensive shape

Example:

  • Brighton under De Zerbi = lots of possession, lots of blocked shots = high corner counts.
  • Teams chasing late goals often rack up 4–5 corners in the final 30 minutes.
  • Low-block teams (e.g., Burnley) tend to concede more corners under pressure.

Markets to target:

  • Over 8.5 / 9.5 / 10.5 corners
  • Team corners
  • First half corners
  • Corner handicap

Use live stats to catch early pressure and jump into in-play corner bets before lines shift.

🎯 3. Predicting Shots & Shots on Target

Shot volume tells the story before the goals come. This market is often mispriced—especially for players who shoot often but don't always score.

Key Stats:

  • Shots per 90 (team + player)
  • Shots on target per 90
  • Touches in the box
  • xG and xG/shot
  • Opponent defensive stats (shots allowed)

Example:

  • Darwin Núñez is famous for racking up 3–5 shots per match, even if he misses big chances.
  • Players like Salah, and Halland are high-volume shooters.
  • Look for midfielders moved into more attacking roles or players on set pieces.

Markets to target:

  • Player Shots
  • Player Shots on Target
  • Team Total Shots
  • First player to have a shot

đź›  Tips for Smarter Betting on These Markets

  • Check recent form, but go deeper than averages—look at opponents played
  • Watch team news—does a winger move into striker role? Is the usual set-piece taker out?
  • Avoid public bias—big names are often overpriced in shot and card markets
  • Track your results by market—you might be stronger at corners than you think
  • Use in-play stats—especially in shots and corners, where pressure builds quickly

âś… Final Word

Most bettors chase goals. Sharp bettors dig into the stats behind the action—corners, cards, and shots are where bookmakers are slower and softer.

The value isn't always in who wins.

It's in how the game flows—and who does what before the goal.

Track the right stats. Use the right tools. And start hitting markets most punters ignore.